Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season
Future Start Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories): 60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6''' intense, and '''4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). AndrewTalk To Me 01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC) :60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5''' intense, and '''2 violent). Steven09876 05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC) January 01W.LINGLING 91W.INVEST Well, we might have lost our attention of the WPac while Ian was churning, but this disturbance has killed at least 20 in the Philippines. Ryan1000 22:20, January 13, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Lingling And now it's named Lingling. Ryan1000 11:31, January 18, 2014 (UTC) : Umm, I didn't really expect this storm to be named. Well, now that it's named, looks like the name Lingling ''will have to be used for a weakling fail TS (and I'm talking about its intensity). Hopefully it doesn't cause any more deaths in the Philippines, since it already caused plenty of deaths there. BTW, where did Andrew, Dylan, and some of the other guys go? Andrew hasn't posted in 11 days (since the 7th), and the others probably got bored of the tropics. Now I feel lonely here, since it's just me and Ryan that's been posting lately. Because of this, on my userpage you can see a note saying I'll become more inactive from now on. This place is just too boring and lonely, with only you and me active lately. Steven09876 19:47, January 18, 2014 (UTC) ::: Yeah, it seems everyone has gone into hybernation mode, the tropics are pretty sleepy right now. 'Ryan1000' 20:44, January 18, 2014 (UTC) ::: I am sorry guys for not being more but I had an accident and the doctor has prohibit of using the cel and the computer he also told me to repose two weeks,also my senior year has me uptight we work,but I love being in the community will to post more.Btw this is such a sorry excuse for ts the only bad thing is that it killed a lot of people.Allanjeffs 18:16, January 19, 2014 (UTC) ::::I haven't felt much need to comment, lately; I've mostly been lurking, quietly anticipating the formation of Cyclone Dylan in the Australian region :D And yes, I'm afraid that Lingling (PAGASA name: ''Agaton) has killed 40 people :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 19:04, January 19, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Lingling I am back! Well, Lingling (Agaton) is gone, and she lasted a while as a tropical cyclone (11 days)! The system's death toll is now at 52. AndrewTalk To Me 00:13, January 24, 2014 (UTC) 02W.KAJIKI JMA Tropical Depression (Basyang) 2014 is starting rather rapidly for the WPAC. Several hundred kilometres west of Guam, the JMA has a reported the formation of a new tropical depression. It currently is at an intensity of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h, 15 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). The agency expects a peak of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h, 18 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds)/998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). Meanwhile, on the JTWC side, a TCFA has been issued for Invest 92W. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 30 to 40 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). If the JMA forecast verifies, we will be witnessing two January named storms, a rare feat. AndrewTalk To Me 02:52, January 30, 2014 (UTC) :This particular tropical depression now has a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) per the JMA. Also, PAGASA has named this system Basyang, as it is about to enter their area of responsibility. PAGASA's winds for this system are 55 km/h (30 knots, 35 mph) (10-minute sustained). Compared to when the last time this naming list was used, 2010, 2014 has been an active beginner in PAGASA's region. For comparison, in 2010, "Agaton" (Omais) was not named until mid-March and "Basyang" (Conson) did not come until early July. AndrewTalk To Me 12:17, January 30, 2014 (UTC) :::This shouldn't become named by JMA. It's a weak, disorganized, sorry excuse for a depression. Even the JTWC doesn't expect it to develop as it moves through the Philipines. Ryan1000 21:00, January 30, 2014 (UTC) ::::Yeah, I would be extremely shocked if this very disorganized, weak, sorry excuse for a depression became named by the JMA. And Andrew, yeah, that really shows how inactive 2010 was. I think 2014 might become a very, very active season, but still nothing close to the 60 depressions Andrew predicted all the way above. Steven09876 01:06, January 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::::The JTWC upped their forecast a little, forecast to hit 40 mph once. Might be named by JMA by then, but it'd be a waste of a name. Ryan1000 02:55, January 31, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kajiki (Basyang) It's now Kajiki. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:49, January 31, 2014 (UTC) :With winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h, 18 m/s) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) per the JMA, Tropical Storm Kajiki, a name submitted by Japan which means "dorado" or "spearfish", is already two millibars stronger than Lingling. And actually, Kajiki is not going to be that bad of a fail. The JMA predict the storm will reach a peak intensity of 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h, 20 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) before bisecting the Philippines. On the JTWC side, this system has been designated Tropical Depression 2W with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h). They forecast a peak of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). According to PAGASA, Basyang/Kajiki has made landfall over the Philippine's Siargao Island with a current intensity of 85 km/h (45 knots, 50 mph) (10-minute sustained winds). AndrewTalk To Me 12:01, January 31, 2014 (UTC) :::And...it's down to a TD again (by JTWC, still a minimal TS by JMA). Hopefully it won't be a re-Lingling, which killed 70 people from flooding. Ryan1000 19:09, January 31, 2014 (UTC) ::::Umm, this actually strengthened to become Kajiki?! I never thought that this weakling would become named, but I guess it did. And I also hope it won't be a re-Lingling like Ryan said above. Steven09876 23:50, January 31, 2014 (UTC) Remnants of Kajiki Kajiki has dissipated over the South China Sea. It has caused torrential rain and three fatalities in the Philippines. AndrewTalk To Me 14:13, February 2, 2014 (UTC) February 03W.FAXAI 93W.INVEST This invest (93W) has been going on and off the JTWC tropical cyclone outlook for the past several days. Right now, the JTWC gives the system a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours, and it is a very hostile region for development. AndrewTalk To Me 14:19, February 23, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Faxai Now named by JMA. Forecast to turn east out to sea. Ryan1000 21:20, February 28, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Faxai Now a cat 1 typhoon, but still moving out to sea. Ryan1000 00:08, March 5, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Faxai Down and out. Ryan1000 08:28, March 6, 2014 (UTC) March 05W.PEIPAH 95W.INVEST Yes, I know it is April, but this little invest formed in March. Located southeast of Chuuk, Invest 95W is rather poorly organized right now. Moderate vertical wind shear is in its surroundings. Nevertheless, the models show slow development of this system in the next 48 to 72 hours. Current intensity: 15 knots (15 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Chance of development: Low for the next 24 hours. Hopefully, we get something! The WPac has been real boring since Haiyan! AndrewTalk To Me 18:02, April 1, 2014 (UTC) :Convection has improved in the circulation, and the invest is now in a favorable environment, which should prompt tropical cyclone development in the next 48 to 72 hours according to the dynamic models! Chance of formation: medium per JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 12:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 05W Boy, the Western Pacific seems poised to hurl in an incredible season this year! The JMA has recognized this tropical depression, and it is extremely close to the equator (1.9°N!). They pinpoint its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Their forecast shows a 35 knot (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds), 998 mbar (hPa) tropical storm to come in roughly 24 hours. Meanwhile, the JTWC have classified this depression the fifth of the season for them, giving it an intensity of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph). The agency shows a pretty nasty upcoming week for Mindanao at this time of year. I do not ever recall them forecasting a 75 knot (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) typhoon landfall with gusts of 90 knots (105 mph) in April that far south! Apparently, Vamei's ghost persists (the next allocated name in the Western Pacific happens to be Vamei's replacement name)! AndrewTalk To Me 01:08, April 4, 2014 (UTC) :Nothing much is really new on the JMA side. The JTWC are now a little less agressive in their forecast for Tropical Depression 05W. They show it bisecting Palau, but now, its forecasted peak has been lowered to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). Stay safe from 05W, Philippines! AndrewTalk To Me 11:53, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm 05W Although the JMA continues to report same intensity for Tropical Depression 05W, it now predicts a peak pressure of 996 mbar (hPa) for the system. On the JTWC side, 05W has been upgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). In the next five days, the JTWC still predict Tropical Storm 05W to cross Palau and reach a peak of 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph) before making landfall in northern Mindanao and crossing the Philippines. As a side note, the Philippines is already starting to get hammered this year. An early January tropical depression, Kajiki, and Tropical Depression 04W have already made landfall there, with Lingling producing additional effects as well. 05W is poised to join that list. P.S. I could really get someone else on here now! I have been talking with myself quite a lot recently! AndrewTalk To Me 22:05, April 4, 2014 (UTC) : Sorry Andrew, we're all getting pretty bored with the rest of the world right now, it seems the only basin that gets the most attention on this wiki is NAtl. :/ Anyways, it's not uncommon for the Philipines to have a lot of landfalls in a year, they get an average of 6-7 landfalls a year. The record high was in 1993 (19), and the record low was in 1958 (1). However, having 4 landfalls by the beginning of April isn't something you'd expect every day. Also, if you hadn't noticed, I posted that the reanalysis for the 1945-1950 Atlantic seasons is done in the Atlantic forum, quite a few facts that were once true are now false. Ryan1000 23:48, April 4, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Peipah (Domeng) @Ryan: Yes, I have seen your facts, I even replied to your post. Now, as for this cyclone, the JMA has acknowledged there are gale force winds within it, prompting the upgrade to a tropical storm. Not surprisingly, this Equatorial storm has been named Peipah - Vamei's replacement name submitted by Macao which refers to a popular pet fish in the territory. The storm Peipah is at an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) per the JMA, which expect it to hit severe tropical storm intensity before landfall. Forecast peak: 50 knot winds (60 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a 985 mbar (hPa) pressure before a Mindanao landfall. As for the JTWC, they still estimate the same intensity as before, but predict strengthening to 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/70 knot (80 mph) gusts before attacking the Philippines. Peipah looks rather bonafide on satellite imagery. Both this storm and its Southern Hemisphere twin could cause quite some trouble! AndrewTalk To Me 13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC) : Wow Andrew, you must have been feeling really ''lonely on these forums. Anyway, the Philippines might need to watch out for Peipah, its current intensity is still 35 kts and its forecasted peak has been upped to 55 kts. This could get pretty bad, we shouldn't see a Washi 2.0 but anything can happen... Steve820 20:25, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ::: Peipah isn't going to get too strong due to somewhat inhibiting factors for development, what concerns me is that it's moving directly towards the area that was hit by Washi 3 years ago. Hopefully the people there have endeavored to prevent a disaster like Washi from recurring, but it's still something to be aware of. I hadn't noticed you replied to me until after I wrote that post above Andrew, nevermind it. Also, you should take note that this is just the beginning of what could be a 'SUPER ''' El Nino in 2014. According to Dr. Master's latest blog post, the downwelling being observed in the Equatorial Pacific is the strongest ever observed since the Sattelite Era in the 1970's, even stronger than what was initially observed in the 1997-98 El Nino, which is the strongest one in known history, on par with the 1982-83 event. Because of this, I recently have revised my worldwide predictions of 2014 to expect a below-average Atlantic season, an above-average Pacific hurricane season, a slightly above average Pacific typhoon season, with normal activity elsewhere. However, as shown in years such as 1972, 1983, 1992, and 1994, El Nino events don't mean anything about how notable 2014 may be in the Atlantic (the basin with the most attention, of course). Ryan1000 23:51, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ::::I have read Master's blog post, and that is exactly why I have been forecasting a ridiculously high amount of total depressions and storms for this year's WPAC season. In regards to Peipah, nothing much has changed from the JMA side, but the JTWC are even less agressive on the storm. They now forecast a peak of only 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds)/55 knot (65 mph) gusts before landfall in Mindanao and no longer track Peipah over Palau. Hopefully, things do not get too bad over there! AndrewTalk To Me 01:11, April 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::Nothing much has changed from the JTWC, the JMA now report a slight pressure increase to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), yet report the same pressure increase as before. Also, Peipah has entered PAGASA's area of responsibility, prompting the classification of Tropical Storm Domeng. Currently, the storm's PAGASA's intensity is 65 km/h (35 knots, 40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) gusting to 80 km/h (45 knots, 50 mph). It should only be a matter of time before Domeng (Peipah) affects the Philippines. AndrewTalk To Me 12:38, April 6, 2014 (UTC) It's now down to depression strength by JTWC (though still a TS by JMA), and forecast to turn more north towards the central Philipines by now instead of the southernmost island of Mindanao. This week (April 7-11) is also the 36th RA IV Hurricane Committee for the Atlantic/East Pacific (in Cancun, Mexico). I hope they will retire Manuel for it's devastating impact in Mexico, but I don't think Ingrid will go, unfortunately. Ryan1000 15:40, April 7, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section. #January JMA Tropical Depression - 0% - For obvious reasons. #Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them. #*''Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.'' #Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse. #*Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts. #Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no. #March JMA Tropical Depression - 0% #04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA. #*Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse! #Peipah - TBA - Still Active #*Domeng - TBA - Still Active Post yours, too! AndrewTalk To Me 13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ---- Steven's retirement predictions: *Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement. **Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not. *Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse. **Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance. *Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts. *04W: 0% - Depressions can't be retired (duh!) **Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you. *Peipah: ? - Still active (Steven's retirement predictions were last updated at 20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC)) Steve820 20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ---- Not much to say right now, but, why not... JMA names: *Lingling - 30% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately. *Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy at all. *Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it. *Peipah - ?? - Nothing yet. PAGASA names: *Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I have doubts it will go. *Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past. *Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke? That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)